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Edge of the day
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Moved up 47 points in 24 hours — the market is repricing on something. Worth checking what news drove it before the price settles.
What moved, and where the market disagrees
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
58%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
69%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
37%
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
50%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
88%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
65%
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?
Major repricing — something changed; check the news.
26%
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
Real money is repricing this.
35%
Starts in 103 days · Politics · Midterms
2026 US Midterm Elections
Latest News
See all →
Betting1h agoLotteries Demand Gambling Licenses for Prediction Markets
Crypto1h agoCrypto PAC Drops $1M Into Michigan Democratic Primary
Prediction1h agoTalos Plugs Institutional Tools Into Kalshi Markets
BreakingCrypto5h agoSEC Settles With Coinbase Over Gensler-Era Records Row
BreakingPrediction5h agoPolymarket Fights France's World Cup Block in Court
Crypto9h agoKraken's xStocks Adds HK, UK and South Korea Equities
Featured Analysis
See all →
What the Prediction-Market Tape Is Saying This Week
Eight Polymarket contracts, $11.1M in daily volume, and six prices at 0–1%. The tape has settled — but the residual tails, repricing speeds, and one live 16% are still telling a story.
10 min read
World Cup 2026 Final Day: Spain vs. Argentina Briefing
Spain and Argentina meet in the 2026 World Cup Final at MetLife Stadium on July 19. Spain enter favourites with a record 6 clean sheets; Argentina lean on Messi and late-game resilience.
7 min read
World Cup 2026 Briefing: Bronze Final & Final Odds
July 18 briefing: England and France meet for bronze in Miami at 5 p.m. ET. Spain enter Sunday's final as -164 favorites; Argentina's Messi chases Golden Boot and history.
6 min read
Hot Takes
Sports Contracts Won. Now They Must Live With It.
Sports event contracts already dominate prediction-market volume at 80%+. The 2026 World Cup is cementing it — and forcing a reckoning with what the category actually is.
7 min read
Provably Fair: Genuine Tool or Trust Theater?
Provably fair cryptography does eliminate one specific cheat, but leaves players exposed to withdrawal fraud, insolvency, and exit scams. Know exactly what it covers.
5 min read
Soft Fields Are Saving Online Poker — For Now
The softer-field shift in online poker is not a sellout — it's the only viable path forward. Here's why the grinders are wrong to resist it.
6 min read
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